CHINA - PLA MISSILE & SPACE PROGRAMS



RED STAR IN ORBIT

PLA SUPER-POWER MANNED SPACECRAFT PROJECT

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PLA LONG MARCH LM2F WITH SHENZHOU SPACECRAFT


CIA Assessment
Applicability of Space Launch Vehicle Technology To Ballistic Missiles

CHINESE LONG MARCH & CSS ICBM

SPACE                LONG     PRC
TECHNOLOGY           MARCH    ICBM     COMMENTS
================================================================
WARHEAD              NO       YES      APPLIES TO ICBM ONLY

RE-ENTRY VEHICLE     YES      YES      SIMILAR TO RETURN
                                       CAPSULE TECHNOLOGY

PAYLOAD SEPERATION   YES      YES      SATELLITE & WARHEAD HAVE
                                       SIMILAR DELIVERY

INTERNAL GUIDANCE    YES      YES      SAME HARDWARE - SOFTWARE
& CONTROL SYSTEMS                      TAILORED TO APPLICATION

STAGING MECHANISMS   YES      YES      SAME

PROPELLANTS          YES      YES      SAME

STRAP ON BOOSTERS    YES      YES      TECHNOLOGY MAY BE USED TO
                                       CREATE MISSILE STAGES

AIR FRAME, MOTOR,    YES      YES      SAME
CASES, LINERS, &
INSULATION

ENGINE OR MOTORS     YES      YES      SAME FOR FIRST STAGE

THRUST VECTORING     YES      YES      SAME
CONTROL SYSTEMS

ENGINE NOZZLES       YES      YES      USUALLY IDENTICAL

SOURCE:  CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY 5/14/98

Launch May 1995 (successful) AsiaSat II (Martin Marietta)

Specific Technology Transferred Validation of China's solid rocket kick motor. This motor was still in development and had only been tested once before (with the attitude control defective launch of a Pakistani satellite). Given the motor's limited history, the key uncertainty was whether or not it would have sufficient quality and reliability to place the Martin Marietta satellite into its proper orbit. To help assure this, U.S. contractors completed coupled load analysis on kick motor for the Chinese. Contractor and other foreign persons were also allowed to witness Chinese solid rocket satellite kick motor tests. The concem here was that the solid rocket propellant be configured to have exactly the right grain structure and be shaped to produce exactly the right mount of thrust for exactly the right mount of time 1. not to place damaging amounts of force (acceleration and vibration) on the satellite and 2. to propel the satellite precisely as far (but not further) than it needed to go into space. Although U.S. citizens were told not to discuss what they saw with the Chinese, it is unclear whether or not foreign staff associated with AsiaSat (who were not bound by U.S. law) were briefed by the contractor or spoke with the Chinese so as to convey solid rocket propulsion know-how.

Military Significance This kick motor's development could help China perfect a post boost vehicle (PBV) to deliver warheads against nations armed with missile defenses. In fact, the Russian SS-25 (a version of which the Chinese are trying to perfect with Russian assistance) uses a solid rocket PBV to help foil possible missile defenses (this by blasting the warhead payload off its predictable ballistic trajectory down through space and the atmosphere). Such kick motors also could be used to help delivery military communication and reconnaissance satellites.

EXAMPLE OF CHINESE RECENT MARV DEPLOYMENT The above explains the reported MARV (MAaneuvarable Re-entry Vehicle) characteristics shown by the warheads that China shot off the coast of Taiwan in Feb. of 1996. The DF-15 (also known as the M-9 in the export version) launches were observed by Aegis missile cruisers. Previously monitored Chinese launches of the DF-15 noted the warheads were basically unguided during the terminal phase of flight (eg... last few seconds before impact). The warheads used during the 1996 Taiwan crisis were changing directions and speed rapidly, as if practicing to avoid anti-missiles such as the Army Patriot and the US Navy Standard.

Launches 1996-7 and 1998 (successful) Motorola Iridium (Lockheed)

Specific Technology Transferred Validated Chinese upper stage separation technology, vibrational and load coupling analysis, attitude control, and payload mounting. Two Motorola communication satellites were to be delivered with a kick motor and new satellite dispenser of Chinese design. To assure successful launch, the contractor demanded that the Chinese prove that the Chinese systems would work properly and do the job. Concerns included the properly timed release of the satellites, the mounting of the satellites in the delivery bus (would the two satellites break from their moorings due to improper vibrational and load coupling analysis), would the delivery bus's attitude control be destabilized by the release of the fast satellite, and would the kick motor generate too little or too much thrust at the wrong time.

Military Significance Helped China master the technology needed to develop its own mukiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles for the new solid rocket intercontinental ballistic missile it is trying to drive from SS-25 missile technology with the Russians.

SOURCE: Beyond The Loral-Hughes Controversy: A Decade of US Satellite Transfers And Their Military Significance, by Henry Sokolski, Executive Director, The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, 1-202-466-4406


NASA Cooperation with China


Background:

NASA's cooperation with China currently consists of very limited, low-level, project-specific Earth Science cooperation, involving geodynamics/plate tectonics research and joint participation in certain multilateral coordination groups, such as the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites. There is no joint satellite, launch vehicle or human space flight related cooperation under discussion or contemplated at this time. NASA is, however, cooperating through the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) with Chinese Government sponsored researchers as a part of the Alpha-Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS) program. AMS is a DOE-sponsored high-energy particle physics experiment designed to study the origin of the universe from the International Space Station (ISS). The AMS Principal Investigator is MIT Professor Samuel C. Ting, a 1974 physics Nobel laureate. NASA, under a 1995 agreement with DOE, has responsibility for the integration of the DOE AMS experiment on the Shuttle and ISS.

Over the last 4 years, at the request of the U.S. Department of State, NASA has informed all interested Chinese entities including the Chinese National Space Agency and the Chinese National Remote Sensing Center that a prerequisite for any potential new cooperation between NASA and China, would be China's adherence to the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) guidelines and annex, and adoption of export control policies consistent with the MTCR. Further, that once MTCR issues are resolved, NASA would be interested in renewing a dialog with China in areas of potential cooperation. This USG position was reiterated to the Chinese Government by Embassy Beijing in bilateral discussions conducted in November 2001.

Response to questions:

What is NASA currently doing with China?

NASA's cooperation with China currently consists of very limited, low-level, project-specific Earth Science cooperation, involving geodynamics/plate tectonics research and joint participation in certain multilateral coordination groups, such as the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites. There is no joint satellite, launch vehicle or human space flight related cooperation under discussion or contemplated at this time.

What are your views on China's recent successful launch of a precursor human space flight mission?

NASA is not in direct contact with the Chinese Government regarding their space flight activities. As such, I can only comment on what I have seen in the press. China has publicly expressed its interest in placing a human into space in the 2003 or 2004 time frame. Further, that they are committed to developing a long-term capability to launch humans into space in manner similar to the United States and Russia. The recent press reports that I have seen indicate that on March 25, 2002, China launched an unmanned test flight using their Long March rocket system with the objective of supporting the development of a human rated launch system.

Can China Participate in the International Space Station Program?

Under the International Space Station agreements (ISS), it is possible for non-Partners to participate in ISS program through an ISS Partner. However, all other Partners must be notified and give their consensus prior to the non-Partner's participation in the program. Non-Partner participation could occur through contribution of hardware to the ISS or through collaborative research. The ISS international partners are currently not discussing any plans to pursue Chinese participation in this program.



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